Overview#
EUR/USD extended its rally from 1.0850 to 1.0920 last week. Mixed US economic data and hawkish ECB comments were the main drivers.
Technical Analysis#
Support and Resistance Levels
- Strong Resistance: 1.0950 – Key resistance tested since December
- First Resistance: 1.0920 – Last week's high
- First Support: 1.0850 – 50-day moving average
- Strong Support: 1.0780 – Rising trendline
Indicators
RSI (14) at 58, maintaining bullish bias. MACD histogram positive and above signal line. Bollinger Bands narrowing — a sharp move may come soon.
Fundamental Analysis#
Key data this week:
- Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence Index
- Wednesday: Eurozone CPI (Flash Estimate)
- Thursday: US Q4 GDP (Revised)
- Friday: US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)
The PCE inflation data will be decisive for Fed rate decisions.
Weekly Strategy#
Bullish Scenario: Close above 1.0920 targets 1.0950 and 1.1000. Stop Loss: 1.0870
Bearish Scenario: Close below 1.0850 targets 1.0780 and 1.0720. Stop Loss: 1.0900
Risk Warning: This analysis is not investment advice. Forex trading involves high risk. Do your own research and follow risk management rules.